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Prediction for CME (2015-04-04T23:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-04-04T23:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8147/-1
CME Note: CME is associated with part of a filament eruption on the SE area close to AR 2320. Eruption can be seen in SDO 193/304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-04-09T01:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-04-08T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Apr 05 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50405
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Apr 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Apr 2015 until 07 Apr 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Apr 2015  10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 009
COMMENT: Four active regions were reported by NOAA today. However, the two
strongest flares of the past 24 hours did not occur in any of them. The
C1.9 flare peaking at 03:36 UT today took place behind the north-west limb.
The C3.8 flare peaking at 00:07 UT today was associated with a filament
eruption in the south-east quadrant (to the south of NOAA ARs 2319 and
2320). A partial halo CME was associated with this flare. It first appeared
in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 23:36 UT on April 4, had the angular
width of at least 230 degrees and projected plane-of-the-sky speed around
760 km/s. SDO/AIA data show that the CME was also accompanied by coronal
dimmings and a post-eruption arcade. The bulk of the CME material is
directed eastward of the Sun-Earth line, so we expect only a glancing blow
from this CME (probably the CME-driven shock) late on April 7 or early on
April 8. More C-class flares are expected, especially in the NOAA AR 2320.
The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speed
(around 520 km/s) and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of around
6 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (K

Lead Time: 84.67 hour(s)
Difference: 25.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-04-05T12:30Z

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